Hands off Iran!

Iran substitute 'The US'.

when are "we" going after the saudis anyway? i mean, that really actually is where al-quaeda is from, and it's a dictatorship with a bad human rights record, what am i missing here?

And they did such a good job when they tried that with the EU.
Hey, Brain! What are we going to do today? - The same thing we do every day, Pinky.

1. 'Iran's... government... poses a big problem for the United States and should be replaced, lawmakers said Sunday.'

2. South Korea's government poses a big problem for North Korea and should be replaced, Kim Jong-il said Sunday.

3. Britain is a 'failed state' living in the shadow of the US and would be better administered from Berlin, said Chancellor Schroeder yesterday.

4. The government of Greenland is out of touch with the wishes of the people and will be replaced at the next general election, said the people of Greenland.

That's right, it's 4 which is hopelessly idealistic and out of touch with present realities.

if anything the white house line in that slate article is MORE muted and LESS firebreathing, esp.given the scale of the victory being claimed in iraq (ie it actually — slightly — reflects acknowledgment of the difficulties ahead) (ok perhaps that's reading a lot into "that's hard", but the fact that they've stepped back from "we can now do anything" is a step AWAY from yr worst case, isn't it?)

What's so disheartening is that even the Democratic position is so far right:

'Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., a Democratic presidential hopeful who strongly backed the Iraq war, said "regime change" is the answer in Iran. He said he was not suggesting U.S. military action because of the pro-American attitudes of many Iranians.'

Which seems to imply that the fact that Iranians are not 100% anti-American is the only thing keeping the tanks from rolling into Teheran.

? I'm not spotting your connection, especially since that involved a sitting Democratic president.

The U.S. tiptoes around the Saudis because they have oil.

(Insert Louie Armstrong song chorus here, with extreme sarcasm.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A35772-2003May24.html

"It worked so well in Latin America":

In an interview in February with the Los Angeles Times, Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage drew a distinction between the confrontational approach the administration had taken with Iraq and North Korea and the approach it had adopted with Iran. "The axis of evil was a valid comment, [but] I would note there's one dramatic difference between Iran and the other two axes of evil, and that would be its democracy. [And] you approach a democracy differently," Armitage said.

At one of the meetings, in early January, the United States signaled that it would target the Iraq-based camps of the Mujaheddin-e Khalq (MEK), or People's Mujaheddin, a major group opposing the Iranian government.

The MEK soon became caught up in the policy struggle between the State Department and the Pentagon.

After the camps were bombed, the U.S. military arranged a cease-fire with the group, infuriating the Iranians. Some Pentagon officials, impressed by the military discipline and equipment of the thousands of MEK troops, began to envision them as a potential military force for use against Tehran, much like the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan.

But the MEK is also listed as a terrorist organization by the State Department. Under pressure from State, the White House earlier this month ordered the Pentagon to disarm the MEK troops -- a decision that was secretly conveyed by U.S. officials to Iranian representatives at a meeting in Geneva on May 3.

The MEK is considered a terrorist organisation by the (merely conservative) State department and a group of Northern-Alliance-like freedom fighters by the (ultra-hawk) Pentagon. Their camps are bombed during the Iraq war, but then a truce is made with them. But this infuriates the Iran government and pushes the Iranian state ever-faster towards nuclear armament (because it's clear that's the only way not to be invaded, see N. Korea).

Meanwhile the White House orders the Pentagon to disarm the MEK (perhaps to start their make-over into legitimate democracy campaigners in Iran), effectively splitting the group into two factions: 'politicians' who seek legitimacy and 'guerillas' with a bloody agenda. (Like the IRA, and like the GOP.) Nine days later the Saudi Arabian suicide bombings happen -- and the implication is that it's a splinter group involving the MEK guerillas who didn't believe in becoming a tool for US overt/covert operations against Tehran.

there's some complicated conspiracy theory that somehow involves Bush I and Reagan in some ploy to prevent the release of the hostages before the 1980 election. I cannot remember how credible it is.

Momus - the statement that Joe Lieberman represents the "Democratic position" is either ignorant or disingenuous.

The US has struck water storage units in Sirik, in southern Iran. One side in this war tries to prevent American aircrafts from illegally entering its airspace and invading its maritime borders. The other attacks civilian infrastructure.

— kev joon (@never_oppressed) June 10, 2026

Seems like we're always the fall guy and they walk off scot-free
…

Israel does the US's bidding. they're our fall guy.

I’d say it’s more a state of symbiosis, but not necessarily mutually beneficial. at least not for the non-elite.

Israel is the senior partner in this coalition now. The history of how we got here could be explained in imperial outpost terms but they haven’t been “doing our bidding” for decades.

Disagree.

---

But anyway, the takeaway from the below is that the US is slowly winning the war, unless Iranian strategy changes.

By now, it has become clear that coercive diplomacy is not the reason – or at least not the only reason – behind the repeated U.S. strikes on southern Iran. The choice of the targets, together with the political signaling accompanying them, suggests that there is an attempt to erode Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and open the strait through military means.

🔹On the one hand, the strikes over the past week, especially in the past two days, have been concentrated on Iranian air defense systems, command-and-control centers, facilities related to the Iranian Navy’s drone operations, and radar systems.

🔹On the other hand, Donald Trump admitted openly for the first time that the United States has been helping ships pass through the strait over the past month and has thereby contributed to increasing the flow of oil to global markets.

🔹Taken together, these developments suggest that the Trump administration wants, on the one hand, to operationally weaken Iran’s ability to target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and, on the other hand, to signal at the highest political level that the security situation around the strait is improving, thereby reassuring shipping companies.

🔹At the same time, it has become clear that the Iranian responses, in the form of targeting U.S. bases around the Persian Gulf, have not had any meaningful deterrent effect vis-à-vis the United States. Rather, the United States appears to have calculated that the benefits of continuing these strikes outweigh the costs.

🔹This has led to different conclusions and proposals within Iran’s strategic community. On the one hand, there are criticisms that Tehran has become too cautious and too predictable in its response to the United States. This, critics argue, has allowed the adversary to make a reliable assessment of the costs and benefits of escalation and to confidently plan its targeting of Iranian territory.

🔹The suggestion is that Iran needs to become more risk-taking and less predictable in its responses by, on the one hand, acting directly against the U.S. naval presence in the region and its warships and, on the other hand, targeting energy infrastructure in the region so that Trump’s strategy of reassuring the energy markets will not succeed.

🔹 On the other hand, there are warnings that these developments may be part of a broader pattern of preparations for a new large-scale war coordinated between the United States and Israel. The argument is that, just as the United States has concentrated on targeting Iranian air defense systems and radar installations in the south, Israel, in its latest strikes, targeted the same types of facilities in central Iran. Together, they may be weakening Iran’s defenses in order to secure a free hand in a new round of large-scale war.

🔹Overall, this is why the ceasefire, which has now been reduced to little more than a name, appears not to have brought any meaningful benefits for Tehran, and the process of rethinking the country’s strategic options seems already to be underway.

BREAKING: President Trump explains what happened with yesterday's Iranian strike on a US Apache helicopter:

Two US Apache helicopter pilots were flying low in the Strait of Hormuz.

An Iranian drone then "lodged" in-between both pilots but did not explode.

The drone then caught on fire as the pilot were attempting to land the helicopter.

These two pilots then took the helicopter into the sea and were rescued by an unmanned sea drone.

This marks the first ever rescue by an unmanned sea drone in US Military history.

gather round kids ... it's storytime!

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/world/middleeast/precision-strike-iran-water.html?unlocked_article_code=1.pVA.IJWa.4Elzw8I3s-Yw&smid=url-share

Iranian state media reported that the U.S. had hit water storage buildings and a local official said that water was cut off to more than 20,000 people living in a town and villages nearby. Temperatures in the area have reached above 100 degrees Fahrenheit this week.

A commercial satellite image from the morning of June 9 shows two small water structures in the village of Bemani. Both have light blue pipes, typical for water distribution infrastructure, as is their location — on a hill outside of a populated area. The buildings are consistent with the description of the two storage tanks that Abdolhamid Hamzehpour, the head of the provincial water authority, said were destroyed.

It is unclear if the U.S. intentionally struck the water facilities, or knew what was in the buildings. Deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime under international law.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/iran-threatens-elon-musks-companies-in-middle-east-iranian-state-media.html

let’s go Iran

Now it looks like tonite's promised attack is OFF

#tacothursday

he gave his buddies time to buy the dip before pulling the plug

Yeah his timing is off, you’re supposed to ramp up the war on Fridays, then deescalate on mondays

looking forward to a Trump-branded resort on Kharg Island, right in the middle of the refineries and storage tanks... Ivanka will walk barefoot through it, discovering something that no one else had seen

The strait IS STILL closed btw. https://t.co/TBpewxFrAt pic.twitter.com/xu806GMDlu

— 純粹經驗 (@ChunCuiJingYan) June 12, 2026

State-owned Mehr News Agency:

"New details of a 14-point draft memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States have been released by a source close to the Iranian negotiating team.

The details of this draft are as follows:

1. Immediate and permanent cessation of…

— Shin (@hey_itsmyturn) June 12, 2026

this has come from Iranian state media rather than the dribbling old paed's truthsocial posts, so might be true. If so, then it means complete US capitulation to Iran's demands might be imminent.

the genocide in Gaza is not mentioned, just the new genocide in Lebanon as part of the cessation of hostilities.

Yeah his timing is off, you’re supposed to ramp up the war on Fridays, then deescalate on mondays

― z_tbd, Thursday, June 11, 2026 6:36 PM (yesterday)

Start a little war on Friday, we were making love by Monday

“The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing. What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith. AMAZING! Also, their totally rebuffed Drone attack last night against Indian Ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE. They better get their act together, and FAST!”

the orange dementia man putting Iran on Friday notice.

From the last bit of "shooting" there is some before/after satellite pics of the Israeli Ramat David base that took a massive hit from a Iranian ballistic missile that suggest it was more than just mere "damage", it looks like a whole lot of hangar got taken out.

it is ironic that Trump is butthurt about the spirit of good faith negotiations being soured by a leak, when he bombed them twice during previous negging and murdered their Ayatollah!

But if it's Fake News then there was no leak to begin with? I'm confused!

at this point of advanced confabulation, I think everything is fake news apart from his posts on truthsocial

IIRC Iran and the US did this same dance a few months ago, where they both leaked their own version of the ceasefire terms

I think everything is fake news apart from his posts on truthsocial

I think the opposite. I was talking about this with my wife yesterday - the Venezuela raid, a thing that really did happen, was not previewed on Truth Social. I think every Trump post about Iran is just him pounding the table and shouting - it has no news value or operational weight (though it is useful for market manipulation purposes).

this occult art of printing oil through posting seems insane to me, there has to be a breaking point when the reserves have run out, or the US can't loot enough from Venezuela, Iraq, Syria to make up the shortfall and the era of the $150 barrel is here

there is no heavy oil in the US, that has to be a breaking point because the economy freezes if there is no diesel.

trump’s whole life is he’s yelled at someone to make something happen for him. He probably thinks that’s totally the way with oil.

Meantime per Reuters:

CHEVRON CEO MIKE WIRTH SAYS OIL INVENTORY LEVELS COULD REACH UNCOMFORTABLE LEVEL BY AROUND JULY

uncomfortable levels

my house has the same headline but it's about coffee beans

Get me Jed Clampett

Presumably Chevron's CEO is speaking about US oil inventories, not global, because dozens of countries are well past the "uncomfortable" level.

Reuters: The United Arab Emirates has agreed to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, four sources said, ​in a tactical shift after weeks of Iranian attacks on the wealthy Gulf Arab state. Sources claim the total funds involved are between $10-20 billion with the first tranche of 3$ billion already been made available in return for an end of Iranian attacks on the UAE.

definitely feels like things are actually shifting/progressing this week. Trump still can't take the l, but something has to give.

Time to pay for your mistakes!

lol would be hilarious (and good) if UAE makes a separate peace

On one of them accounts that tracks flights posted there was a diplomatic tagged plane that flew to Tehran from UAE on the day before the last bout of shooting. And I don't think the UAE did get attacked at all last week. My brother lives there but I've not heard from him for weeks. I have been messaging him about how he is about to lose the house he owns in the UK if he doesn't make payments on it, so I figure there might be total authoritarian firewall around Dubai at the moment or he just doesn't gaf about his old house any more!

Trump says Israel's attack on Beirut 'should not have happened'
In a Truth Social post, Donald Trump has criticised Israel for attacking the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital Beirut earlier today seeing as Washington and Tehran are “so close” to a peace deal.

Trump said there should be no more attacks on Lebanon, something Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is very unlikely to accept. He also warned Hezbollah, the Iran backed Lebanese militant group, of striking across the border into Israel.

Trump said:

This morning’s attack on Beirut should not have happened, particularly on a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran. Israel has the right to defend itself against threats, but the attack it was responding to was very small and meaningless, nobody was hurt, injured, or killed, and should not disrupt this important process.

We are very close to a Deal that will bring peace to the region, including to Lebanon, and all sides should stand down. There should be no more attacks by Israel anywhere in Lebanon, but there should also be no more attacks by any other party, including Hezbollah, against Israel. This could be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace — Let’s not blow it!

Lol of course you didn't know know anything and couldn't control Israel. Of course!

yeah the good cop, bad cop fakery isn't fooling anybody.

There has been right-wing anti-Araghchi protests in Iran, protesting against any prospective deal with the US! I suspect Israel is going get pounded with missiles by dawn.

You're crediting Trump with more subtlety than he deserves. He's not partnering with Netanyahu in a cute game of good cop/bad cop. This is obvious because he's playing both roles himself, wildly swinging from making dire threats against Iran and calling them off hours later, while contradicting his own statements multiple times a day. He really is as dumb at this as he appears to be.

“Why did Bibi (Netanyahu) have to do a fucking attack?” Trump told Axios. “I was so pissed off. I let him know. He has no fucking judgement. I let him know that.”

Trump also told Fox News that he asked Israeli prime minister Netanyahu “what the fuck are you doing?”

yeah, that didn’t happen

I'm just not convinced that Israel isn't getting the nod from US military to pound civilians in Beirut right now. This isn't helped when one of the main *sources* feeding this "Trump is furious with Netanyahu" narrative is the odious and highly uncredible Barak Ravid of Axios, who is MOSSAD and was involved in Unit 8200 and is obv a Israeli propagandist/bullshit merchant.

dudes jerking his pud to the bombing footage right now

yeah, I mean the obvious thing is strategic ambiguity. They love war crimes, but they don’t want to admit to them in the admittedly small chance that they’re ever held accountable

and it’s also been stated 8 million times on this thread that if we were really opposed to what Israel is doing, we could just stop sending them money and weapons. Oddly, Trump has never floated that.

"If I swear a lot it will seem more believable and also I will look strong and like I know what I'm doing" ehhh idk guys

ok maybe idk lol

“It shook it up. It delayed the signing by a few hours. It was supposed to be now. Now it is scheduled for a few hours from now,” Trump said in a phone call with Axios.

Trump fumed at Netanyahu over the attack on Beirut, saying, “it is so bad – I couldn’t believe it. An hour before we are supposed to sign the deal.”

Strong Sgt Bilko energy

is this mythical deal going to interfere with the old man’s gladiator event?

so this 'deal' looks like no deal at all, and much worse than what the Obama administration negotiated years ago. I don't really care that much but it looks like a serious failure, oh well

It's currently just a Memorandum of Understanding that includes a ceasefire in Lebanon. For that reason alone it is shaky as hell.

You know Israel will test the ceasefire immediately in ways that would quickly eliminate any real constraints on their actions. They've already announced they won't withdraw the IDF from southern Lebanon. Most likely they'll fire on civilians that get anywhere near their bases and then if anyone fires back they'll bomb the hell out of some other civilians, declaring their "right to self defense".

The mou that will supposedly be signed in Friday only lasts for 60 days too.