Thoughts on the current Iranian protests?

"I absolutely reject the concept of "democracy" and "freedom" as nakedly false phantoms of the west. Who would ever want to be "free" when they could instead live in the glorious order and sanctified grace of Sharia? Why does anyone need to have an opinion for himself?
Shahin Shahida, Iran"

blimey

This can obviously go in a lot of different directions. Tianenman Square is the cautionary tale, but from what little I know of modern Iran, I think it would be harder for the government to effectively crack down the same way the Chinese military did. It would be nice to believe this is more like South Korea 15 years ago -- part of an inevitable movement toward liberty and individual rights.

I wonder how enthuasiastic the Bushie-cons really are about democratization in Iran, though. A free-thinking, freestanding Persian republic could still be a pain in the ass for American power mongers, even without all the "Great Satan" stuff. Anyway, I think the protests are a heartening sign. I just hope there are no bloodbaths forthcoming.

Iran's democratic development is always to be welcomed.

This is perhaps not the best moment for mass protests against the regime... with the country being menaced by the USA it could be easier for the mullahs to get away with a crackdown.

There are no major current protests. Activists are locked up or have left since 2009. There's another election in Jone 2013.

http://www.npr.org/2013/02/01/170823724/irans-2009-crackdown-resonates-with-exiles-in-turkey

June

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/09/world/middleeast/iran-protests.html?unlocked_article_code=1.DVA.Ym58.6l-WREiCJ2MY&smid=nytcore-ios-share

From that article:

The government shut down virtually all forms of communication on Friday, shuttering the internet, blocking telephone calls from abroad and disrupting domestic cellphone service in an effort to prevent the protesters from organizing and sending news outside the country, said cybersecurity and internet freedom experts who monitor Iran.

Even Iranian news agency websites, like the state-controlled news agency IRNA, went silent. Fars News media and the Mehr News agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards Corps, were among the few domestic media outlets posting updates.
On Friday night, Iranians received a text message from the intelligence wing of the Revolutionary Guards asking that “suspicious and destructive” people be reported to a hotline, according to a copy reviewed by The New York Times. The message also said Iran’s enemies had “a plan to increase naked violence” and asked parents to prohibit their children from going to the streets.

…Despite the information blackout, videos of protests and witness accounts trickled throughout the evening from those inside Iran who had access to Starlink satellite connections, said Mehdi Yahyanejad, a technology expert and internet freedom activist based in Los Angeles. Mr. Yahyanejad was involved in an effort after the 2022 women-led uprising to buy 300 Starlink satellites and send them to activists and citizen journalists in Iran.

Like with Venezuelans, I sympathize with the people of Iran but am not on board with Trump's meddling that has nothing to do with caring about the people there. Also, some folks invoking the Shah in a positive way is weird. Also Israel is watching closely. Most of the protesters appear to be young and do not appear to be inspired by the Shah (or Trump)

Via a Haaretz email summary of other publications--

IRAN: As protests continued to sweep across Iran, A doctor told Time magazine that hospitals in Tehran have recorded at least 217 protester deaths, "most by live ammunition." The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported that over 2,300 people have been detained.
Tehran escalated its threats against protesters, with Iran's attorney general, Mohammad Movahedi Azad, warning that anyone taking part in protests will be considered an "enemy of God," a death-penalty charge.

After Trump said the U.S. was watching Iran closely and would intervene if it "starts killing people, the U.S. State Department warned: "Do not play games with President Trump. When he says he'll do something, he means it." Iranian officials said Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has no plans to leave. "He will not leave Tehran even if B-52s are flying overhead," one official told The Telegraph.

Reza Pahlavi, exiled son of Iran's deposed shah, called on demonstrators to shut down the economy, "especially transportation, and oil, gas, and energy," adding that the goal "is no longer just to come to the streets" but "to prepare to conquer and defend city centers."

The great irony here is that right now millions of Americans are fervently working to duplicate the Iranian government as closely as possible in the USA. They see themselves in the future not as the demonstrators, but the ones shooting into the demonstrators.

Also, some folks invoking the Shah in a positive way is weird

absolutely cringeworthy. I doubt anyone outside of western media is doing this, but if they are in Iran - give yer heads a shake lads or just stop participating in horribly damaging western psyops that so far just make failed states. Although there was the case of anti-CCP Hong Kong protesters waving British colonial flags a few years back which just boggles my mind.

The Center for Human Rights in Iran, based in New York, said it received eyewitness accounts and credible reports indicating that hundreds of protesters have been killed in Iran since the government cut off the country’s access to the internet on Thursday night.
…The CHRI said witnesses have reported that “hospitals were overwhelmed, blood supplies are critically low, bodies are being piled up, and the number of casualties is rising by the hour.” It said that many protesters have been shot in the eyes. In the past, Iranian security forces have shot protesters in the eyes with metal pellets and rubber bullets. The group also said witnesses reported the use of snipers, military rifles and surveillance drones.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/01/11/iran-protests-death-toll/

⚡️Iran: Flammable materials were thrown at teenagers present in the mosque

🔹 CCTV cameras of a mosque in Sabzevar show a rioter throwing flammable materials into the entrance of a mosque; while several teenagers were present in the mosque. pic.twitter.com/7qsCbkQrq1

— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) January 10, 2026

some CCTV footage of the work of some of these "peaceful protesters" advocating for freedom and democracy, trying to set fire to children in a mosque.

🇮🇷 The death toll from Iran’s nationwide protest crackdown has risen to at least 538 people, according to the U.S.-based group Human Rights Activists in Iran, which says more than 10,600 people have been detained. The group reports that 490 of those killed were protesters and 48… https://t.co/yfrijBvjtM

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) January 11, 2026

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-01-11/la-me-uhaul-westwood-protest

not sure whether to post this here but about a mile from where I live in LA there was a large anti-regime demonstration (there’s a big iranian/persian population in this part of town) and some guy in a u-haul rammed through a group of protestors. thankfully no one was hurt seriously. motive hasn’t been disclosed but he had what seems to be anti-western writings on the side of the truck

Military correspondent for Israel's far-right Channel 14 gives prediction for after the Islamic Republic falls: the IDF will do a 2nd "Operation Arrow of Bashan", this time against Iran, referencing when 80% of Syria's military capabilities were destroyed in 2 days of airstrikes. pic.twitter.com/bktVgMVA9C

— Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) January 12, 2026

there was a big protest near the Ferry Building in San Francisco yesterday... seemed to be more than a few monarchists. Lots of photos of the prince

This many in this amount of time is staggering if true.

At least 2,000 people have been killed – 1,850 of them being protesters - says the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency – which has tracked Iran protests for more than 20 years. Yesterday the group had said it had only so far identified about 500 casualties. It adds that more than 16,000 protesters have been arrested.

Meanwhile, Iran International has concluded that at least 12,000 people were killed at protests on 8 and 9 January.

Really good thread on how Western imposed sanctions destroy people and countries who don't comply with the capitalist order.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/2010902034267230415.html

“This is a war, and war has casualties. In fact, in order to preserve and protect and minimize the death toll, minimize innocent victims yet again being killed by this regime, action is needed,” Pahlavi says.

how brave of him from his life of luxury in Florida, got to be the worst excuse for an opposition leader in exile ever, a pampered rich cretin urging people to sacrifice their lives for him! It almost reads like a dril post.

according to human rights groups and family members, the execution of the first protester scheduled to be put to death, Erfan Soltani, has been postponed.- NY Times

thank you President Deals 🙏

signed, a CIA Agent

imagine if you flipped this and there are 100's of dead US security forces amongst the protester casualties and foreign actors are boasting about their secret service agents assisting the demonstrators and providing guns and other deadly materiel for them to cause maximum carnage.

⚡️⭕️Italian TV presents an image from the 1990 mobster movie 'Goodfellas' as a genuine image of an Iranian family before the Islamic Revolution pic.twitter.com/Ev7ZglZIMR

— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) January 16, 2026

"As far back as I can remember, I've always wanted to be a mullah”

in this alt world Phil Leotardo from The Sopranos is the Shah of Iran!

Iranian film director Panahi who has been jailed a number of times in Iran, and who secretly filmed his great award nominated critic fave 2025 movie It was Just an Accident in Iran, and who is now not in the country and facing a prison sentence if he returns is quoted in this article about the current situation

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/16/ali-khamenei-regime-will-not-be-able-to-keep-control-of-iran-says-dissenting-film-maker

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/25/world/middleeast/iran-how-crackdown-was-done.html?unlocked_article_code=1.HFA.l02d.ONkfsPgP9Jpa&smid=nytcore-ios-share

Over 5,000 dead . This is a long detailed article on the brutality of the Iranian government

with even the regime admitting to 3000+ deaths, 5,200 is almost certainly a massive undercount. I don't how credible TIME is these days, but this article claims it's more like 30k:
https://time.com/7357635/more-than-30000-killed-in-iran-say-senior-officials/

difficult to fathom that tbh

I wouldn’t trust Time even in its heyday, but I just looked it up and it’s owned by the billionaire CEO of Salesforce lol

ah right I did actually know that, thanks

anyway, regardless of venue probably best to ignore two anon sources with undetermined agendas now that I think of it. 5000 dead is still astonishingly violent

5200 dead indicates this is not just a matter of protestors marching against the regime. It's already a large scale revolt that hopes to evolve into a revolutionary war and end with the overthrow of the government. The scale of the response is a good measure of the size of the threat.

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/jan/27/iran-protests-death-toll-disappeared-bodies-mass-burials-30000-dead

Wow, could be 30,000 dead

I doubt they could verify that. This is an org that settled on a number for the dead in Gaza for a very long time.

Didn't realise Iranian doctors were involved in estimating the number of people who died in Gaza.

all UK media has zero credibility here, especially the fucking Graun. They can't be trusted on Iran casualty numbers just as much as they could be trusted to publish the true number of Ukrainian War casualties on the Ukrainian side (which they never do).

Their observations, shared with the Guardian and combined with accounts from morgues and graveyards across the country, begin to reveal the vast scale of violence inflicted on Iranians during the state’s crackdown. Ahmadi and his colleagues are hesitant to provide a figure for the toll but agree “all publicly cited death tolls represent a severe underestimation”. Comparing the number of dead they witnessed with hospital baselines, they estimate it could exceed 30,000, far surpassing official figures. This is based on the conclusion that “officially registered deaths related to the crackdown likely represent less than 10% of the real number of fatalities”.

Estimates of the number killed vary substantially, hampered by the ongoing internet shutdown. The Iranian government has acknowledged more than 3,000 dead, and the US-based organisation HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency), whose figures have been reliable during previous crackdowns, says it has verified more than 6,000 dead and has more than 17,000 more recorded deaths under investigation, giving a possible total of about 22,000. Other estimates from doctors based outside Iran range up to 33,000 or more.

Fixed.

yeah that methodology does seem dubious. I don't know anything about HRANA but if they're credible, that's, again, astonishingly violent.

also I don't know who looked at the nyt story curmudgeon posted, but they were clearly indiscriminately firing into crowds and at people fleeing, so very high numbers wouldn't be surprising

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if it was over 3k, but even that last sentence of the 2nd para is just ppl writing anything.

They've got enough to say its an underestimate.

Meanwhile I remember the numbers in the Gaza reporting as being stuck around 50k or so for a long time. Why weren't they consistent with trying to caveat it like this back then? At some point it felt like genocide denial.

Instead of tearful rituals of mourning, families of those killed at protests have been filmed dancing, blaring folk songs and clapping over people’s graves — customs anathema to a once- lugubrious affair. The trend is seen as a way of defying traditionally somber religious customs that many Iranians now associate with the Islamic Republic’s austere rule.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/17/world/middleeast/iran-memorials-protesters-crackdown.html?unlocked_article_code=1.M1A.8zGz.1ZzLmqJinbqk&smid=nytcore-ios-share

that bastion of unbiased, inquiring, truth-probing journalism, The New York Times

I refuse to read any US/UK Iran reportage. But I'd guess what is going on here is the grinding noise of consent manufacture that goes on when the US is fixing for another illegal war.