come help me worry about AVIAN FLU PANDEMIC

I think you mean millions.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/updates/en/

The great fear is that the virus could mutate and merge with human influenza to take on a new and highly infectious form. Such a process is believed to have created the notorious Spanish flu, which killed between 20 million and 100 million people across the world from 1918 to 1919.

Human to human infections may also have occurred during earlier outbreaks of bird flu in Hong Kong and Europe in 1997, which remained under control.

"It’s obvious that a pandemic will occur, all the conditions are in place," Lee Jong Wook, the director general of the World Health Organisation, said on Monday. "The problem now is time."

- From that Times article

xpost: No, all governments are in a position to be as prepared as possible to crank out vaccine, set up quarantines, etc. Any outbreak is going to need international response pronto.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/21/health/21cnd-bird.html?hp&ex=1127361600&en=9f3bf41a4cb8508e&ei=5094&partner=homepage

However, as the article points out, flu viruses quickly adapt to become resistant to vaccines as soon as the vaccines go into widespread use. Also, H521 is already resistant to less-expensive, generic flu vaccines available in the developing world. Developed world countries like the US and the Netherlands have already begun stockpiling more expensive flu vaccines which are still under patent.

http://www.gamespot.com/gamespot/features/video/hist_square/screens/ff7.jpg

I still think that calling me a "d*ck" is unwarranted and provocative.

Yeah, of course. She's not like, "We're all doomed, we might as well just kill ourselves." But she's at least of the opinion that in weighing potential risks to life, liberty and happiness, avian flu >>>>>>> al qaeda.

xp*st

Also, I didn't know you were the one anointed preserver of ILX bird flu thread continuity. Does great responsibility also come with this great power?

Hi Dan!
xpost

Seriously, what exactly are you trying to accomplish here?

Yes, someone corrected me above that millions, not thousands died in the 1918 outbreak. What I find most frightening are that vaccines as mentioned above are pretty useless cuz this thing mutates and we can't make enough viable vaccine against an unknown future viral blueprint. Also appalling is that there IS an antiviral drug that is effective against the bird flu, but there isn’t enough to go around (except for heads of state like Busheroo and his family and cronies) and the drug companies have no incentive to make it as no one is throwing research dollars at it and drug co’s would have to drop R&D of other drugs in progress that DO have money attached in order to commit to making this non-profit drug 24/7 for a year to provide adequate supplies for the world. WTF?!?!? Finally sickening is that the 1918 flu killed millions in the world and it had only a 2% mortality rate. This bird flu has a 50% mortality rate. I am alarmed. I don’t know what to do about it and I don’t think it’s being over-hyped, I think it’s a real concern that we should all share.

As for worrying, there's constantly calls about new flu outbreaks and strands and comparisons to the 1918 outbreak almost every year. Most respiratory therapists I know don't even bother getting flu shots, since they know the version they're most likely to get will be a mutant strain anyhow. Worrying about this is like worrying about Hanta virus or various parasitic disorders that bury under the skin like Guinea Worm Disorder.

I don't know what more you could do that would be legal, honestly. I mean, taking away the patent and allowing others to manufacture generics may sound like a good idea, but at the same time, I don't know that you can penalize a company for coming up with a decent product. Even more of an issue is that there's a obvious lack of human trials versus the particular strand that this thread refers to, and the further fact that in order for the epidemic to grow, that strand would have to further mutate into another one. If it really turns out to be some uber flu from hell that kills even 15% of the people that catch it, god knows if Tamiflu will do anything.

>I suppose there are other things that should be stock-piled by nations too, such as smallpox vaccine and such. <

Smallpox vaccine is an iffy one to me, simply because its not a problem at the moment, and pretty much eradicated as a disease. If you want to save lives, work on malaria. Its still a horrible plague across the world's tropics.

Its more a hypothetical thing than anything. Thus far, a lot of the cases have been children as opposed to adults. Not only that, what we have for case studies on it isn't exactly stupendous, given the relative brevity of most cases in any sense. Its true that the 1918 flu killed a lot of 25-35 year olds, but that was 1918. There were many basic treatments, that, while not inhibitors like Tamiflu, simply aren't available today. The most reassuring aspect is the sheer percentage of deaths due to infection decreasing over time. If we saw another rapid increase back near the 50-60% mark, I would worry a lot more. But the trend has been the opposite direction (likely due to the governments affected realizing the problem at hand and taking more action) and in a hurry.

Also, I think that the notion that we should expect the bird flu to be no more deadly than a regular flu once it reaches the developed world is seriously over-optimistic. The Spanish flu of 1918-1918 killed mainly young adults - people in their 20s. We just don't know how this bird flu would act once it starts to spread.

You can't compare the medical community in the US circa 1918 to the medical community in the US in 2005. They're miles apart. We're talking 20 years before the invention of PENICILLIN. Nor can you compare the capabilities of your average health care facility in Cambodia and the US. Again, Phnom Phen has a lot of 5 star hotels going up, but its not somewhere you want to get sick. Nor do people in Cambodia have access to health care like they do here in America. Even if you don't have the money for a doctor, you can afford basic over the counter medicine. It doesn't work that way for people who's average income every year is well below $2,000.

A virus that has a 100% mortality rate certainly can cause serious epidemics. The issue of gestation period comes into play, which is why AIDS, although its basically a death sentence for those without access to drugs, spreads so fast.

>Also, I think that the notion that we should expect the bird flu to be no more deadly than a regular flu once it reaches the developed world is seriously over-optimistic. The Spanish flu of 1918-1918 killed mainly young adults - people in their 20s. We just don't know how this bird flu would act once it starts to spread.<

Again: 1918 was how many years ago? Its not as if the best treatments we can come up with are throwing people in iron lungs and making them sit in spring water anymore.

So did I. Good points though Alan.

That's a good point, but I think that AIDS has a much longer gestation period than bird flu, so a 100% fatal bird flu would presumably spread slower than AIDS.

Again: 1918 was how many years ago? Its not as if the best treatments we can come up with are throwing people in iron lungs and making them sit in spring water anymore.

That's true - but presumably the benefits of these new treatments would apply equally to people of different ages - your argument seems to imply that they would be more helpful to the young.

2 Studies Find Flu Treatments Fall Far Short

A New Deadly, Contagious Dog Flu Virus Is Detected in 7 States

Well, yes. But the flu isn't instant in terms of its effects, and additionally, there will be hard headed people who ignore early symptoms and come into work or go out in public. Its bound to happen. After all, you're not dealing with a disease that's going to cause some level of incapacitation quickly. Hell, who hasn't gone to work with a cough or runny nose?

Also, remember that both 90 years ago and in Cambodia, personal hygene is not quite to the levels of the west in 2005.

>That's true - but presumably the benefits of these new treatments would apply equally to people of different ages - your argument seems to imply that they would be more helpful to the young.<

That's always been true. Like I said before, the elderly and immunocomprimised are always the ones who are rushed to get flu shots first because they're the most likely to contract the disease and to die from it. If you're in your thirties, worrying yourself silly about the bird flu (unless its in regards to your parents or something getting it) is overreacting. There's a ton of dangerous, horrible diseases that are just one lucky break away from hitting american shores and perhaps wiping us all out. Hell, there's all sorts of events like that which seem possible, and maybe even likely. Just ask people in California how they feel about the San Andreas.

I encounter live chickens on the street every day. What am I going to do? Hope they don't sneeze on me?

The thing is, I don't think anyone is in any more danger now than they were 1, 2, 5, 10, 20 years ago. So, moving to China now is as good a time as ever. I'm thinking about spending some time in Shanghai, especially the chicken-less parts.

ROOM TO RENT
Hi-speed net access for downloading MIA remixes
NO CHICKENS

and i can't help but feel a little nervous, despite no evidence of human-to-human transfer.

*sigh*

Not to be a dick and derail or anything but why are these ppls furnitures outside???!