How Many Electoral Votes Will Obama Win?

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Place your predictions here. Poll ends the day before Election Day.

Poll Results

Option	Votes
370-379	14
360-369	10
350-359	9
330-339	8
310-319	7
290-299	5
300-309	5
0-99	5
280-289	5
320-329	4
340-349	4
500-538	3
380-389	3
150-159	3
390-399	2
100-149	2
270-279	2
420-429	1
160-169	1
170-179	1
180-189	1
470-479	0
480-489	0
460-469	0
490-499	0
450-459	0
440-449	0
430-439	0
220-229	0
410-419	0
400-409	0
250-259	0
260-269	0
230-239	0
190-199	0
200-209	0
210-219	0
240-249	0

― o. nate, Tuesday, 28 October 2008 19:27 (seventeen years ago)

367

― Carrie Bradshaw Layfield (The stickman from the hilarious 'xkcd' comics), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 19:29 (seventeen years ago)

Between 286 and 293.

― ☑ (Pleasant Plains), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 19:38 (seventeen years ago)

666

― ℵℜℜℜℜℜℜℜℜℜ℘! (Curt1s Stephens), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 19:38 (seventeen years ago)

367

― Carrie Bradshaw Layfield (The stickman from the hilarious 'xkcd' comics), Tuesday, October 28, 2008 2:29 PM (15 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

We must be looking at the same map because I came up with the exact same number. Pollster.com perhaps?

― Moodles, Tuesday, 28 October 2008 19:45 (seventeen years ago)

353

― Michael White, Tuesday, 28 October 2008 19:53 (seventeen years ago)

There's a handy vote calculator here. You can click on a state to flip it to Obama or McCain:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

― o. nate, Tuesday, 28 October 2008 20:09 (seventeen years ago)

I'm going to go out on a limb and say 338.

― o. nate, Tuesday, 28 October 2008 20:13 (seventeen years ago)

distribution of votes between states always seems like bs to me.

i like 313.

― men in denim build this country (Roberto Spiralli), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 20:15 (seventeen years ago)

349

― Rock Hardy, Tuesday, 28 October 2008 20:24 (seventeen years ago)

RealClearPolitics.com <<< FiveThirtyEight.com

― № 1 (libcrypt), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 20:26 (seventeen years ago)

That is, if y'r a bettin' man.

― № 1 (libcrypt), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 20:27 (seventeen years ago)

360

― horrible (harbl), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 20:38 (seventeen years ago)

That map is fun. Oh, the wild out-there shit McCain would have to do to win.

― Mozarella sticks. Think about it. (kenan), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 20:43 (seventeen years ago)

We must be looking at the same map because I came up with the exact same number. Pollster.com perhaps?

― Moodles, Tuesday, 28 October 2008 19:45 (59 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

www.politicalbetting.com

― Carrie Bradshaw Layfield (The stickman from the hilarious 'xkcd' comics), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 20:44 (seventeen years ago)

distribution of votes between states always seems like bs to me.

It's equal to the members of Congress you have.

― Michael White, Tuesday, 28 October 2008 20:45 (seventeen years ago)

311

― homosexual II, Tuesday, 28 October 2008 20:49 (seventeen years ago)

364

― Sir, are you calling 911 to complain about traffic? (G00blar), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 21:23 (seventeen years ago)

voted 340-349

we need to put some money on this

― Mozarella sticks. Think about it. (kenan), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 21:34 (seventeen years ago)

420 maaaaaaaaan

― big louie moilolnen (dan m), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 21:34 (seventeen years ago)

inhaling is kind of the point

― Mozarella sticks. Think about it. (kenan), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 21:39 (seventeen years ago)

382. (Though I voted 370-379.) (I don't usually think I'm right.)

― Casuistry, Tuesday, 28 October 2008 21:41 (seventeen years ago)

I'm going to go out on a limb and say 338.

― o. nate, Tuesday, October 28, 2008 3:13 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

'out on a limb'?

pleasant plains is way conservative here

538 estimates 375 as most likely outcome and if anything the ground game will make that a more conservative estimate

― joe 40oz (deej), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 21:42 (seventeen years ago)

I'm thinking that there are going to be states on Election Night where we go "oh shit!", like Virginia and North Carolina still going to McCain.

It'll turn out okay in the end, but I don't see a blow-out.

Maybe it's because I drive past a sea of McCain/Palin signs every day to work, but I also remember 2004 too well.

I know, it's not 2004. But there are still so many people who aren't going to vote for a smooth-talkin' half-black terrorist with no experience.

― ☑ (Pleasant Plains), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 21:50 (seventeen years ago)

If Virginia goes McCain at this point, it would be a huge shock to me. His poll #s there are awful.

― Alex in SF, Tuesday, 28 October 2008 22:21 (seventeen years ago)

414 seems to me to be the absolute cap for Obama. That's the 375 he's got in the no leaners RCP map + GA, ND, MT, WV, SD and AZ. 390-396 seems imminently doable to me, but I wager something around 370-379 is the most likely.

― Alex in SF, Tuesday, 28 October 2008 22:25 (seventeen years ago)

^^^this yeah

― joe 40oz (deej), Tuesday, 28 October 2008 22:34 (seventeen years ago)

I know, it's not 2004.

Bush was polling ahead most of the week before election day, according to electoral-vote.com

― Eric H., Wednesday, 29 October 2008 00:01 (seventeen years ago)

(i.e. the site that has had Obama above 350 or so for the last three weeks, et al)

― Eric H., Wednesday, 29 October 2008 00:01 (seventeen years ago)

268

― stone cold all time hall of fame classics (internet person), Wednesday, 29 October 2008 00:28 (seventeen years ago)

dont you mean 368

― joe 40oz (deej), Wednesday, 29 October 2008 00:34 (seventeen years ago)

ain't guessin

ain't jinxin it

― obama cyber leader (kingfish), Wednesday, 29 October 2008 00:39 (seventeen years ago)

Kingfish guesses, ruins entire election http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/.element/img/2.0/global/icons/video_icon.gif

― robertwolf8080, Wednesday, 29 October 2008 01:26 (seventeen years ago)

i only guessed because i wanted to see if i could ruin the election

― horrible (harbl), Wednesday, 29 October 2008 01:29 (seventeen years ago)

311

― Dan I., Wednesday, 29 October 2008 01:34 (seventeen years ago)

http://www.stickernow.com/catalog/images/311band.jpg

― stone cold all time hall of fame classics (internet person), Wednesday, 29 October 2008 01:51 (seventeen years ago)

'out on a limb'?

I know mine was a relatively conservative prediction - I just meant that picking any particular number is going out on a limb.

― o. nate, Wednesday, 29 October 2008 17:54 (seventeen years ago)

370–379.

― Millsner, Wednesday, 29 October 2008 18:04 (seventeen years ago)

voted 280-289

I think the race will be tighter than expected, which will majorly freak out a lot of Dems, but O will edge above the Kerry states from 2004 a bit more.

I hope I'm grossly underestimating O's win margin though. I'd love to see a landslide.

― Holdtransferanswerspeaker Featurerecallconfredail (Mackro Mackro), Wednesday, 29 October 2008 18:26 (seventeen years ago)

my first guess was 360 but since someone called that exact number I'll go with 362

― ❤ⓛⓞⓥⓔ❤ (CaptainLorax), Wednesday, 29 October 2008 18:27 (seventeen years ago)

prediction: nevada is o's

― Eurasian Traveler Wig and Moustache Set (get bent), Wednesday, 29 October 2008 18:35 (seventeen years ago)

new screen name

― we are 538 (get bent), Wednesday, 29 October 2008 18:38 (seventeen years ago)

370s

― 4 Out of 5 Dentists (The Reverend), Thursday, 30 October 2008 00:10 (seventeen years ago)

voted 330-339, but i'd be happy if it's more

― gabbneb, Friday, 31 October 2008 15:52 (seventeen years ago)

I voted 380-9. How many does he have to win?

― Autobot Lover (jel --), Friday, 31 October 2008 16:47 (seventeen years ago)

he has to win all of them, plus complete the obstacle course under three minutes and ten seconds

― Mr. Que, Friday, 31 October 2008 16:48 (seventeen years ago)

That's gonna be tough, I reckon he has a better chance on the obstacle course than McCain.

― Autobot Lover (jel --), Friday, 31 October 2008 16:49 (seventeen years ago)

He has to stay on the big balls.

― A socialist who's happy to spread the wealth (Susan), Friday, 31 October 2008 16:53 (seventeen years ago)

my read - i'm fairly confident dude has CO, IA, NM, PA, likely NV and VA and probably OH. the tossups imo are FL, MO and NC, though turnout - already being reflected in recent polling? - may make them less tossup-y. the only other states i think Obama has a reasonable chance of winning are IN, leaning slightly McCain, but going down to the wire, and just maybe ND (and NE-2?), where there isn't a lot of polling to look at. i think McCain's probably going to take MT, SD and AZ by a couple of points, but it's possible that an early network call for Obama might push MT into Obama's column - time zones might not produce the same effect in the latter two? I think turnout in GA will be enough only to bring it within a few points, not for a win.

― gabbneb, Friday, 31 October 2008 17:10 (seventeen years ago)

voted 340-349, but i'm thinking it's gonna be lower. i'm not totally seeing FL + NC going obama, and probably not MO

gabbneb OTM with the true toss-ups being FL, MO, NC.

i'd love to see him get my home state of OH, and he probably will, but there's something that's preventing me from being confident about OH

― mark cl, Friday, 31 October 2008 17:13 (seventeen years ago)

Skipping 43 messages at this point... Click here if you want to load them all.

not BE a

― Tracer Hand, Monday, 3 November 2008 18:11 (seventeen years ago)

NV O
MT M
ND M
MO O
IN M
OH O
FL O
NC O

― collardio gelatinous, Monday, 3 November 2008 18:18 (seventeen years ago)

Tracer, I'm guessing he won't be a liberal, either, but Dems will pretend he is, just like with Dear Bill.

― Dr Morbius, Monday, 3 November 2008 18:20 (seventeen years ago)

"liberal" doesn't mean anything

― Tracer Hand, Monday, 3 November 2008 18:28 (seventeen years ago)

it means whatever dr morbius thinks democrats aren't

― TOMBOT, Monday, 3 November 2008 18:36 (seventeen years ago)

that's very Seussian

― Dr Morbius, Monday, 3 November 2008 18:37 (seventeen years ago)

also very true

― Black Seinfeld (HI DERE), Monday, 3 November 2008 18:37 (seventeen years ago)

We (MO) will go blue.

― Tape Store, Monday, 3 November 2008 18:42 (seventeen years ago)

You guys do know that he doesn't get to become king unless it's 450+?

― Dr Morbius, Monday, 3 November 2008 18:43 (seventeen years ago)

he's not running for king, he's running for president

― Mr. Que, Monday, 3 November 2008 18:48 (seventeen years ago)

at least there will be a mandate for HOPE.

― Dr Morbius, Monday, 3 November 2008 18:51 (seventeen years ago)

I get the sneaking suspicion no one will enjoy tomorrow's election returns more than Morbs, in his own way.

― Eric H., Monday, 3 November 2008 18:53 (seventeen years ago)

yes, I will enjoy seeing McCain lose. You know what Alvy Singer said about the horrible and the miserable? Bingo.

― Dr Morbius, Monday, 3 November 2008 18:55 (seventeen years ago)

I don't know, I'm expecting to consume a lot of BOOZ

― Black Seinfeld (HI DERE), Monday, 3 November 2008 18:59 (seventeen years ago)

obv troll is obv ppl

― czn (cozwn), Monday, 3 November 2008 19:04 (seventeen years ago)

"Bingo."

― ☑ (Pleasant Plains), Monday, 3 November 2008 19:10 (seventeen years ago)

I am still praying for a Bloomps win.

I don't believe in god so this makes my gesture even more futile.

― rubisco (Abbott), Monday, 3 November 2008 19:41 (seventeen years ago)

morbs tomorrow i will toast to your unrivaled principle and then get drunk

on wednesday i will be hung over

on thursday and thereafter it will be l-r: obama, BIG HOOS
http://nynerd.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/14-cat-meets-eagle.JPG

― HOOS HOOS HOOS on the autosteen (BIG HOOS aka the steendriver), Monday, November 3, 2008 7:14 PM (29 minutes ago) Bookmark

― HOOS HOOS HOOS on the autosteen (BIG HOOS aka the steendriver), Monday, 3 November 2008 19:44 (seventeen years ago)

I'm not planning to be at work on Wednesday.

― sad man in him room (milo z), Monday, 3 November 2008 19:47 (seventeen years ago)

I am taking off Wed too; enjoy yr day of peace

― Dr Morbius, Monday, 3 November 2008 19:48 (seventeen years ago)

I think I'm not going to watch the TV at all on Tuesday. I have spent enough bad Tuesdays watching TV. See also: Sept. 11, 2001. Some things, I do not need to watch as they transpire. Things good or bad.

― rubisco (Abbott), Monday, 3 November 2008 19:49 (seventeen years ago)

WEDENSDAY, DAY OF PEACE

― El Tomboto, Monday, 3 November 2008 19:50 (seventeen years ago)

I will be eating gingerbread pancakes and drinking ALL DAY

― Kramkoob (Catsupppppppppppppp dude 茄蕃), Monday, 3 November 2008 19:52 (seventeen years ago)

WEDNESDAY, DAY OF PEACE

― rubisco (Abbott), Monday, 3 November 2008 19:52 (seventeen years ago)

[quote]IN M[/quote]

disagreeance. polls this morning gave them a 49-49 tie, tie breaks obama imo

― deej, Tuesday, 4 November 2008 00:05 (seventeen years ago)

suddenly the 280-300 range is sounding plausible...

― Dr Morbius, Tuesday, 4 November 2008 21:44 (seventeen years ago)

based on...

― deej, Tuesday, 4 November 2008 21:50 (seventeen years ago)

my psychic bones. Which have been wrong before.

― Dr Morbius, Tuesday, 4 November 2008 22:17 (seventeen years ago)

OK, so what was the answer?

― Mark G, Wednesday, 5 November 2008 07:41 (seventeen years ago)

looks like 364

― akm, Wednesday, 5 November 2008 07:43 (seventeen years ago)

or 349

― GOOD LUCK USA! (ice crӕm), Wednesday, 5 November 2008 07:55 (seventeen years ago)

lol ILX rong

― Fake Tuomas (ken c), Wednesday, 5 November 2008 11:23 (seventeen years ago)

sorry about your bones morbs

― gabbneb, Wednesday, 5 November 2008 14:24 (seventeen years ago)

i would've been right on at 360 if he would lose NC and GA and win MO but i guess that won't happen? i'm confused. everyone is saying different things.

― horrible (harbl), Wednesday, 5 November 2008 14:27 (seventeen years ago)

McCain won ga and mo

― gabbneb, Wednesday, 5 November 2008 14:30 (seventeen years ago)

CNN still not calling MO and putting the gap at less than 6000 votes.

― Cool Hand Tiller (onimo), Wednesday, 5 November 2008 15:32 (seventeen years ago)

IIRC, if the numbers CNN had last hold up in terms of who is ahead in which state race, Obama is going to end up with 364.

― Black Seinfeld (HI DERE), Wednesday, 5 November 2008 15:55 (seventeen years ago)

sorry, I believed the panicky Obama campaign email Ned posted yesterday. Which outside of politics, is called "a big lie." When will I lose my naivete?

― Dr Morbius, Wednesday, 5 November 2008 18:22 (seventeen years ago)

364, but late to the poll!

― collardio gelatinous, Monday, November 3, 2008 3:15 AM (2 days ago) Bookmark

you win free beta keys for the internet (if North Carolina comes in for Obama)
man I was close with 362.

― ❤ⓛⓞⓥⓔ❤ (CaptainLorax), Wednesday, 5 November 2008 18:42 (seventeen years ago)

My number was either 364 or 367, I can't remember now.

― Black Seinfeld (HI DERE), Wednesday, 5 November 2008 18:44 (seventeen years ago)

g00blar also called 364, iirc

― collardio gelatinous, Wednesday, 5 November 2008 18:47 (seventeen years ago)

i'm totally enjoying being obnoxious about this at the office today.

― collardio gelatinous, Wednesday, 5 November 2008 18:48 (seventeen years ago)

of course counting's not done yet

― collardio gelatinous, Wednesday, 5 November 2008 18:49 (seventeen years ago)

I hit the nail on the head at my mmorpg.com poll: http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/210563/page/1

― ❤ⓛⓞⓥⓔ❤ (CaptainLorax), Wednesday, 5 November 2008 18:49 (seventeen years ago)

Obama Wins Omaha, NE Electoral Vote; Final Tally Looks to be 365-173

― Because it's a snow machine (deej), Friday, 7 November 2008 23:34 (seventeen years ago)

nice work, 10 of you

― Because it's a snow machine (deej), Friday, 7 November 2008 23:34 (seventeen years ago)

fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck i was off by 1

― HOOS HOOS HOOS on the autosteen (BIG HOOS aka the steendriver), Saturday, 8 November 2008 19:03 (seventeen years ago)

haha nebraska did you in? or one the other way

― Because it's a snow machine (deej), Saturday, 8 November 2008 19:03 (seventeen years ago)

off by 1 errors are the bane of computer programmers, too, HOOS

― Aimless, Saturday, 8 November 2008 19:25 (seventeen years ago)

pesky omahans. messin' with my punditry resume.

― collardio gelatinous, Saturday, 8 November 2008 22:32 (seventeen years ago)

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