Majors Use AI To Determine "Hitability" Of Music

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Major Music Labels Use Artificial Intelligence To Help Determine "Hitability" Of Music

February 24, 2003 (Barcelona, Spain)— Have you ever wondered why some songs burn up and down the charts in record time while others have a slower climb, tend to linger and then slowly fall? Have you ever wondered why some songs that seem to have "hit" written all over them do not perform as expected while others seem to come out of nowhere and become monster successes? Science would say the reasons can be found in the mathematical properties of the music and which mathematical patterns produce certain feelings and reactions to what we hear. Polyphonic HMI, based in Barcelona, Spain has developed an artificial intelligence application that helps music labels determine the hit potential of music prior to its release. The new application is to music what x-rays are to medicine, allowing labels to see mathematical patterns and structures in music that until now have been hidden. Not being able to see these patterns in the past has meant that a lot of money gets spent on promoting singles and albums that do not have what it takes.
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"We've had 2,000 years of 'the Human element'...I think its about time for a change." - Brian Eno.

― Lord Custos Epsilon (Lord Custos Epsilon), Thursday, 27 February 2003 12:51 (twenty-three years ago)

I think it's all a very fine idea. It means we only get the catcy, hummable pop songs, and the dreary dross gets left out. I can't imagine the chart being any more homogonised than it is at the moment, so that's not really a concern. "Proper" musicianxs won't care either way - and so long at there's a market for "non-hit" material, this part of the industry won't be effected.

9/10

― Johnney B (Johnney B), Thursday, 27 February 2003 12:59 (twenty-three years ago)

I'd be exteremely interested to see how accurate the predictions this thing are in practice, because I wonder to what extent the mathematical properties and patterns of the music itself are the deciding factors in whether or not a record is a success as distinct from such factors as the marketing and packaging of that record e.g. the appearance and identity of the artist, playlisting & general exposure of the music to it's target audience etc. etc.

― Stewart Osborne (Stewart Osborne), Thursday, 27 February 2003 13:30 (twenty-three years ago)

'Johney B' - afraid I can't share your optimism, there's nothing in history that suggests people are not predisposed to like and buy dreary dross in large quantities. Also 'Johney', sorry about what I wrote on the Robert Hunter thread, nothin' personal dude

― dave q, Thursday, 27 February 2003 13:48 (twenty-three years ago)

there's nothing in history that suggests people are not predisposed to like and buy dreary dross in large quantities
Yep. Coldplay and Radiohead do sell well. Will this porgram be able to isolate and codify what makes this stuff sell?

― Lord Custos Epsilon (Lord Custos Epsilon), Thursday, 27 February 2003 13:56 (twenty-three years ago)

"Will this porgram be able to isolate and codify what makes this stuff sell?"

I think all it will be able to do is to tell us whether it's the music or something else.

― Stewart Osborne (Stewart Osborne), Thursday, 27 February 2003 14:00 (twenty-three years ago)

I'm voting for "something else". Whose with me?

― Lord Custos Epsilon (Lord Custos Epsilon), Thursday, 27 February 2003 14:01 (twenty-three years ago)

+1 for the Custos Epsilon verdict.

How well will this machine determine more "novelty"-ish surprise hit songs, like that thing about sunscreen a few years back, or "Smells Like Teen Spirit", or Squirrel Nut Zippers' "Hot"? Do we need to hook it up with some chaos theory upgrade software, maybe?

― nickalicious (nickalicious), Thursday, 27 February 2003 14:10 (twenty-three years ago)

(I thought this thread was going to be about American Idol for a second.)

― Dan Perry (Dan Perry), Thursday, 27 February 2003 14:21 (twenty-three years ago)

I feared it would be about that shockingly wank Speilberg film.

― Nick Southall (Nick Southall), Thursday, 27 February 2003 14:25 (twenty-three years ago)

I think this is great. Now if they could only get robots to listen to the crud that is bound to be the end result of this, then we'll be set.

― Sean Carruthers (SeanC), Thursday, 27 February 2003 15:11 (twenty-three years ago)

http://www.polyphonichmi.com/images/viz.02.gif
HSS visualization of an album superimposed into the recent "hit universe"

― Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Thursday, 27 February 2003 16:16 (twenty-three years ago)

Someone needs to use that for their album cover, obviously.

― Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Thursday, 27 February 2003 16:19 (twenty-three years ago)

or a rave flyer

― M Matos (M Matos), Thursday, 27 February 2003 16:24 (twenty-three years ago)

(I thought this thread was going to be about American Idol for a second.)

I thought you were implying that Paula Abdul was a robot for a second.

― nabisco (nabisco), Thursday, 27 February 2003 16:25 (twenty-three years ago)

*Beep* "Hello mr signed artist. This is Joe Exec from HSS and according to our software, the chart for your latest single looks bad. In fact, your whole album looks bad. You need to stay in your studio today, tomorrow, and forever, because your contract is ooooooooooooover. Have a nice day" *Beep*

― tylero, Thursday, 27 February 2003 16:40 (twenty-three years ago)

one step closer to the 1984 Prole song.

― Mr Noodles (Mr Noodles), Thursday, 27 February 2003 18:13 (twenty-three years ago)

tylero - hahahahaha!

― Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Thursday, 27 February 2003 18:14 (twenty-three years ago)

I tht this thread read "HIPability" and I was prepared to be dumbfounded. I'm still a bit dumbfounded.

― Amateurist (amateurist), Thursday, 27 February 2003 19:40 (twenty-three years ago)

Me and my zany thread titles

― oops (Oops), Thursday, 27 February 2003 19:44 (twenty-three years ago)

They tried to do the same exact thing in the late 70's which was the last time the industry had a real hard time. The bigger labels tried a whole bunch of "scientific" methods to insure their products would be a hit.

I think George Clinton put it best when he said that you can't quantify and measure good music, every time you do that, the music will always slip away from you.

― Mike Taylor (mjt), Friday, 28 February 2003 02:10 (twenty-three years ago)

The moment music was digitized is the moment this was made possible and yes, it is very possible to isolate the hit-ability of a song and compare it to others (this doesn't mean that we can digitize *taste* however)...can't wait til this gets in the wrong hands.

― disco stu (disco stu), Friday, 28 February 2003 02:19 (twenty-three years ago)

Apparently Nashville has known about this for years:

Well, I was drunk the day mu mom got out of prison
and I went to pick her up in the rain
but before I could get to the station in my pickup truck
she got runned over by a damned old train

― David Beckhouse (David Beckhouse), Friday, 28 February 2003 06:28 (twenty-three years ago)

haha! yeah - country music's stupid!

― James Blount (James Blount), Friday, 28 February 2003 06:36 (twenty-three years ago)

I don't see it working, personally. Melody, unfortunately, is not what sells these days. The key to big sales is having an "image" that can be easily bought into. It helps having an expensive video, or if your willing to suck off Carson Daily...

― William R Henderson (Cabin Essence), Friday, 28 February 2003 18:06 (twenty-three years ago)

Melody, unfortunately, is not what sells these days

save the pinefoxes! buy a melody today!

― mitch lastnamewithheld (mitchlnw), Friday, 28 February 2003 18:12 (twenty-three years ago)

.. So can the AI only ananlyze a song or can it create one too? Maybe if it can be used to create the perfect pop song, we can do away with the music industry once and for all.

― dave225 (Dave225), Friday, 28 February 2003 18:15 (twenty-three years ago)

= Reverse-Osmosis Ovalprocess?

― christoff (christoff), Friday, 28 February 2003 18:20 (twenty-three years ago)

I think George Clinton put it best when he said that you can't quantify and measure good music, every time you do that, the music will always slip away from you.
Good point. To those who never heard his rant on the subject, it went like this:
"...they were hooking electrodes to people, and in the end, the funk was sucked out...it all turned into one bass riff and a wash of cheesy fake violin. Its like makin' love with only one stroke. You might as well just phone it in..."
Fuckin' genius!
I say vote in George Clinton for prez in 2004.

― Lord Custos Epsilon (Lord Custos Epsilon), Friday, 28 February 2003 19:54 (twenty-three years ago)

George Clinton needs the Device. That guy hasn't made a record I like in years. And I don't know what he's talking about with the electrodes, I mean clearly that sounds awesome. Electrodes! Unfortunately the Polyphonic HMI website is just as vague as the piece of PR-press fluff linked at the top of the page so I doubt it works.

― Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Friday, 28 February 2003 21:08 (twenty-three years ago)

And I don't know what he's talking about with the electrodes
He was referring to how focus groups in the late 70s would be hooked to EKG machines to measure their responses to disco records. They based future musical decisions on which parts of the songs got the most intense emotional response (according to the machine.)
This overlooks the fact that on an EKG "delighted ecstasy" and "horrified revulsion" both read out as sharp squiggly peaks.
This might explain why good disco is very very very good and bad disco is very very very bad. The EKG only measures "Intensity" not "Intent"
The EKG machine are like the Cenobites: They are experts on sensation but can't understand the difference between pleasure and pain.

― Lord Custos Epsilon (Lord Custos Epsilon), Saturday, 1 March 2003 02:58 (twenty-three years ago)

― James Blount (James Blount), Saturday, 1 March 2003 03:50 (twenty-three years ago)

and if *they* can get a record contract, *anyone* can.

― Lord Custos Epsilon (Lord Custos Epsilon), Monday, 3 March 2003 15:47 (twenty-three years ago)

I say vote in George Clinton for prez in 2004.

Now there's a good idea. Let those two guys trade places.

George Clinton would certainly make a better US president than George W. Bush, and it wouldn't surprise me if George W. Bush would make better music than George Clinton. :-)

― Geir Hongro (GeirHong), Monday, 3 March 2003 17:29 (twenty-three years ago)

...and it wouldn't surprise me if George W. Bush would make better music than George Clinton. :-)
Gier...when the crack rock is bigger than your head, thats too much to smoke in one sitting. 'kay?

― Lord Custos Epsilon (Lord Custos Epsilon), Monday, 3 March 2003 18:36 (twenty-three years ago)

ilx uses artificial stupidity to determine the hitability of theories of music

― mark s (mark s), Monday, 3 March 2003 18:50 (twenty-three years ago)

it wz an open goal!! don't judge me!!

― mark s (mark s), Monday, 3 March 2003 18:50 (twenty-three years ago)

":-)"!

― M Matos (M Matos), Monday, 3 March 2003 19:18 (twenty-three years ago)

two months pass...

casting "ressurect thread"

― Lord Custos Epsilon (Lord Custos Epsilon), Monday, 5 May 2003 22:06 (twenty-three years ago)

ok, then the varibles needed would also include:

What your friends like, how attractive th band/singer is, what could be talked about from the lyrics, the relevance to some present issue or idea, the slight varaity of experience from hearing it, the assotiation the song takes on through it's placement, the video. I think it's impossible for a computer to get all this.

― A Nairn (moretap), Monday, 5 May 2003 22:37 (twenty-three years ago)

The hardest of these to interpret being the "slight variety of experience" Most of the others could be put into the equation, but they all would have to be put in to get any kind of acuracy.

― A Nairn (moretap), Monday, 5 May 2003 22:53 (twenty-three years ago)

and eventually the gierbot 3000 will just start spitting out the same two friggin' error messages...

*** ERROR 303 - TOO RHYTHMIC ***
*** ERROR 606 - NOT MELODIC ENOUGH***

― Lord Custos Epsilon (Lord Custos Epsilon), Tuesday, 6 May 2003 21:48 (twenty-three years ago)

six months pass...

It has returned from the grave!
http://www.modplug.com/mods/newsdisplay.php3?art=242
http://www.polyphonichmi.com/
http://www.polyphonichmi.com/technology.html
http://www.polyphonichmi.com/hssfaq.html

― Lord Custos Omicron (Lord Custos Omicron), Sunday, 23 November 2003 23:26 (twenty-two years ago)

wait, lemme put this in context:
Posted by CmdrTaco on Sunday November 23, @11:06AM from the where-math-money-and-music-mesh dept.

fb4f writes "Over at Modplug, they have an article describing a mathematical algorithm to predict if a given song will become a hit or not. Paraphrasing the article, a Spanish company called Polyphonic HMI has made a business out of analyzing song submissions and predicting their "hitability". Here's their description of the algorithm and here's their FAQ. They claim to have predicted the commercial success of Norah Jones through this method. Here's my question (which is not fully answered in their FAQ): if they (music company executives) are currently using the algorithm to screen submissions for their "hitability", can we (people who listen to music) use the same algorithm to reject recycled tunes and encourage originality? I for one, still like the fresh talent and community feel of the tracking scene."

― Lord Custos Omicron (Lord Custos Omicron), Sunday, 23 November 2003 23:27 (twenty-two years ago)

more along these lines
Posted by michael on Sunday November 23, @11:53PM from the max-headroom dept.

ctwxman writes "Over the past few decades, advances in computer hardware and software have eliminated many jobs... some technical, some menial, but none artistic. As an on-camera performer in television, I've always was believed that I was 'bulletproof' as far as replacement through technology was concerned. Not so fast. Recently, The Sinclair television stations began using 'central casting' to bring news and weather anchors from a central location (near Baltimore) to the local outlets. Still, real people are needed, just not as many. But now, even real performers may be replaced. The New York Times (inhalation of airplane glue required) reports on a new technology which allows synthesized singers to sing. Imagine having a singer with a world-class voice at your disposal, any hour of any day. She's just standing at the ready, game to perform whatever silly song you might make up for her: a ballad about her love for you, a tribute to your best friend's golf game, a stirring rendition of the evening's dinner menu. Scary."

― Lord Custos Omicron (Lord Custos Omicron), Monday, 24 November 2003 16:24 (twenty-two years ago)

twenty-one years pass...

"Walk My Walk" by Breaking Rust -- an artist with no identity but widely reported by US media to be powered by generative AI technology -- made it to the top spot on Billboard magazine's chart ranking digital sales of country songs, according to data published Monday.

― A floating crown, but an extremely small one (President Keyes), Wednesday, 12 November 2025 19:25 (seven months ago)

Thursday, February 27, 2003

👀

― budo jeru, Wednesday, 12 November 2025 20:28 (seven months ago)

*AI Kim Gordon voice* "You've got Hitability / You could be a star, it ain't hard"

― chr1sb3singer, Wednesday, 12 November 2025 21:09 (seven months ago)

I am guessing this is actually an industry plant, for one it doesn't take a whole lot of digital sales to manipulate this chart, for two given the way all the AI shit is floundering I 100% believe they'd rig this up just for the attention

― frogbs, Wednesday, 12 November 2025 21:12 (seven months ago)

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