Strasburg and the scrubs: '09 Draft

Ackley 2nd?
umm UNC's Ackley calls for gushing

baseball america's top 100

kyle gibson needs to be a redbird obv.

Except it sounds like he's going in the top ten, doesn't he?

Wow BA thinks this is a really really weak year for hitters, doesn't it?

i also wonder what i'm doing with my life when i listen to a bud selig speech

hahahaha the draft video montage intro on mlb network was full of unintentional comedy. apparently the mlb draft has the following exciting features:

-grainy video from bad angles
-greenscreen computers
-whiteboards
-guys in suits writing stuff down

Reynolds has called the Padres boring like five times in three minutes.

Good to know that the guy the Giants picked throws strikes.

Here's the Oakland A's draft room spread:

http://web3.twitpic.com/img/11766000-f0a96207fe2eec2e0ce4016a06722794.4a2ee65f-scaled.jpg

did aaron crow get traded already?

Good to know the Reds have drafted a solid six-foot winner.

Willie Horton just kickin' it

http://editorial.sidereel.com/Images/Posts/office_stanley.jpg

4. Pirates Tony Sanchez C Boston College

i was friends with this kid in high school - real good dude

According to Tim Keown of ESPN: "San Diego State pitching coach Rusty Filter says Strasburg's "plus-plus" changeup couldn't be used in college because the hitters weren't good enough to be fooled by it."

I'm not sure if that's just a bunch of b.s., but I really like the idea of it.

ha that's really funny, reminds me of poker talk

has this draft always been this terrible with signings? should I blame jd drew?

Nope this is the worst. It's the deadline. Agents/players have figured out that waiting until the last second = we get the most money so now all the top signings are just stringing it out for as long as they can. I strongly suspect the next CBA is going to take a long look at this and then the amateur players are going to get fucked, but that's post-2010, I think.

if 12.5 mil is not good enough for a person minimum 3 years away from the majors, i'd think one would have to have a long look at things.

Who are you talking about? Strasburg isn't three years away and as far as I know no one has turned down that kind of money.

should I blame jd drew scott boras?

fixed

supposedly the 12.5 offer is going to be shot down.
and i admittedly pulled 3 years out of my ass - but usually pitchers take a bit to get to the majors. that was my point - that this isn't like hockey or something where a guy can have impact quickly after being drafted.

also the ignominy of having to play for the nats is about ten millie so it's only 2.5MM net

I think you're underestimating how once in a blue moon Strasburg is supposed to be. Most people think he should be pitching in the majors right now and he probably will be sometime next year at the latest (assuming he signs.) So this isn't like drafting a high school kid and hoping he might be good. This is drafting a basically finished product who if he wasn't subject to the constraints of the draft would probably be fielding offers in the $50-75M range.

yeah just like Wieters was going to hit .100 over Mauer's 2009 average this year.

I'm not saying he'll be the best player ever, but this isn't Luke Hochevar we are talking about either.

nah dude i hear you. i think the ballerest thing for Stras to do would be to sign a 12 month, 120 max IP contract for one american dollar.

i totally understand the hype around the guy. looking at how hard he throws i can't help but wonder if arm troubles will be popping up soon enough. purely speculation - sure - but it's all speculation with guys this young.
i know this guy is *the* prospect right now but sanskrit has a point. we see it often - big-time hyped prospect falling on their face, for a variety of reasons. falling short of expectations or, sometimes, complete failure. and iirc no one even wanted to touch this guy out of high school!

the draft in mlb is supposed to be the great equalizer, in a way. teams that can't afford the big-named free agents should be able to turn to their scouting and the draft as their primary means of building a franchise in a cost effective manner. when i see the numbers Boras is throwing around for this guy - who has never pitched in a professional game (or is college professional?) - i sort of feel bad for the Nats. you shouldn't be able to hold a team over the barrel with a draft-pick imho. and that's not to say he should be getting paid peanuts - but letting the numbers for draft pics balloon out of control could possibly lead to some (further) pretty crappy disparity in mlb.

i suppose i'm probably over-reacting tho. things settled down after the Prior signing. but where is he now?
(seriously - where is he?)

Uh Matt Wieter's has had exactly 193 ABs guys. Lets not write him off just yet. But I take your point about hyped draft prospects.

Thing is though that guys who get Strasburg hyped (and back it up by basically destroying the competition in the college and international ranks) aren't really like normal hyped prospects. He's kind of in a world of his own and I don't buy that just cuz a bunch of other picks/prospects fail(ed) he should get paid like any other #1 pick.

The good thing about the MLB draft though is that the best players are not always the ones who have the hugest bonuses or get drafted first or whatever (see Pujols or Tim Lincecum.) Randomness and scouting is kind of the great equalizer.

Prior retired. THANK YOU DUSTY BAKER!

it's a lose\lose because the system is broken.

there is little doubt Strasburg is physically the best pitching prospect to come around in a decade. he is certainly ready to pitch -- and agreed it's nothing like drafting a high school kid. however, the mental aspect is a total crapshoot. no one has any idea if the kid will fall apart after two embarassingly awful starts.

there's about 4-5 teams that can afford a matsuzaka like lottery ticket on an actual prospect, and the nats are the farthest from that, a $50MM bust could fuck their books up for a few years to come. yet if he delivers early tom seaver like numbers for $12.5MM it's a ridiculous gift.. there has to be some sort of middle ground like assigned bonuses for each draft slot.. or something.

But the system is also unfixable unless you are willing to cap salaries which IMO is its own kind of brokeness.

My question about Strasberg is: who did he play? He pitches for SDSU, which is not exactly a CWS contender on a regular basis.

Does the $50M bonus (it's not going to be $50M btw--I'm guessing more like $20, maybe $25 tops) count for the luxury tax or is that just salaries?

It doesn't really matter who you are playing when you are striking out 195 batters in 109 innings. Those are like cartoon #s. But yeah he had a couple of games against high level competition but mostly he was trashing second tier teams IIRC.

agreed on salary cap problem but history has shown us that the mlb players association compromises youth to the benefit of veterans.. there's got to be a solution in there somewhere that doesn't erode overall salaries or the assocaition's negotiating position.

I think the system is going to continue to be broken. I think the big switch is just going to be to move the deadline up to July or whatever so the draft-picks can get some short season time.

The only way I could see it getting completely overhauled is either if a team manages to completely dominate because they are basically stealing dropped picks, but the closest team to doing that is the Red Sox and they aren't really that close. Alternately if whatever Strasburg signs ends up being the level-setting contract going forward, I could see them trying to do some sort of cap somehow. The problem with allowing a draft cap for the union is that it sets the precedent that caps are a good way to control costs and there is only a short step from that to trying to cap player salaries.

I'm going to curious to see if even minus Strasburg's deal this years bonuses just destroy every previous years. The numbers getting released seem much higher than previous years to me.

aaron crow should be jailed if he turns down another contract

Yeah I don't understand what dude is waiting for. Admittedly the deadline isn't a deadline for him, but still.

Is he saying that he'd have been picked higher if not for Al Davis' senility?

Haha I love Michael Crabtree.

oh the tension

aaron crow is just not all that bright, apparently.

he's not on the deadline though

ackley 9.5m

$15M, but doesn't cover any of his arb years. Could get very expensive for the Nats if he's as good as advertised.

it's $15M/4yrs tho right? so $3.75M/yr which even if he sucks is still only 20% of Zito's salary.

Woohoo we got Matzek! Who seems like a bit of an assbutt tbh, but we can beat that out of him. Rockies showing ambition and risk! Who'd have ever thought it.

Yeah they ended up getting him for a pretty reasonable price too all things considered. A far cry from Porcello money.

If I was a Mets fan I'd be super-fucking pissed:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1763

If I was a Mets fan I'd cry a lot

i don't see that as being a huge deal tbh!

yea not sure what ur point is - mets are known 4 sticking pretty tight to draft-slot value & not budging i believe

The Mets signed their first pick, second-rounder Steve Matz, for a $895,000 bonus. He was the 72nd overall selection, and received $388,300 more than the commissioner’s office’s recommendation for his slot.

I'd be super fucking pissed if I were a Rays fan. I read they didn't sign their first or second round pick.

I dunno. Their bigger concern should be keeping the guys they have, since this is their first time being good at baseball ever.

i mean, i can understand wanting to cry if yr a mets fan. but not necessarily over this one.

"yea not sure what ur point is - mets are known 4 sticking pretty tight to draft-slot value & not budging i believe"

And that's a strategy that should be praised?

I'd say spending half as much as the median team on your draft picks is probably a cause for alarm, but hey if you think its business as usual then go to it.

"I'd be super fucking pissed if I were a Rays fan. I read they didn't sign their first or second round pick."

Well since they were both low-ish and protected, I'm not sure how pissed I would be. It's not optimal though def.

The Blue Jays also managed to completely fuck up all their comp picks too so good on them too.

ugh. this i did not know. go-go jp mismanagement.

@keithlaw Told wife the Mets had the smallest draft budget this year. Her explanation: "Well probably they just didn't need good players."

LOL

Keith Law's wife is funnier than he is.

I'd be super fucking pissed if I was Mets fans watching O. Perez drowning 4-0 in the 3rd.

goddamnit you all used were

no, you'd just be surfing ILX, numbly.

CLAVICLE

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204683204574356811579058466.html

Any point in starting a new thread for the '11 draft? Kinda sucks that it starts at 7pm/4pm. Used to enjoy wasting most of the day following this stuff..

I don't see why each year can't have its own draft thread.

yeah, get to it jingleberries.