NL CENTRAL PREDICTATRON

dammit

Why don't we use this for the NL Central Wild Card? Because they, not the division champs, will advance to the Fall Classic.

Wait

oh right baseball

Cubs
Brewers
Astros
Reds
Pirates
Cards

Brewers
Cubs
Reds
Astros
Pirates
Cards

The Brews/'Stros/Reds order could go anywhichway imho.

Hubie, looks like we got a Brewers homer in the house.

Hohokam is "authentic." Peoria Field is posh.

But Maryvale, Arizona in March is a 100% All-American, double-your-money-back, guaranteed GOOD TIME.

:D

Cubs
Brewers
Astros
Pirates
Reds
Cardinals

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Brewers
Cubs
Reds
Cards
Pirates
Astros

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Keith Law: (1:08 PM ET ) I don't know what's funnier - that the Tejada trade continues to make Ed Wade look worse every day, or that Tejada might still be understating his age? ...He admitted today that he's two years older than his listed age.

The report I read says that his DRIVERS' LICENSE actually states his proper birth year (1974) -- due diligence, anyone?

that is awesome, i hate the astros <3<3<3

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-opportunity-in-front-of-the-reds/

the nl central projection in this article seems really weird:

Cubs, 87-75
Cardinals, 86-76
Pirates, 80-82
Reds, 80-82
Brewers, 79-83

brewers were 96-67 last season. i'm not aware of any big changes they've made other than adding yasmani grandal. so i don't know why they'd drop 17 wins.

seems like the projections hate their starting pitchers?

Its in line with their last two years - in 2017, they were projected to win 73 (they won 86) and in 2018 they were projected at 79 (they won 96)

I generally trust FG's methods but if the Brewers manage a 90+ win season then something's gotta be off

they seriously underrated the royals during their good seasons as well

guessing that's because the Royals played high-BABIP baseball which their projections maybe didn't adjust accurately for. or maybe those Royals teams just got extraordinarily lucky. I can see the Royals' style having a lot more variance than say, a team full of disciplined HR hitters

as for the Brewers - maybe they think a lot of their hitters had career years in 2018? hard to imagine Yelich, Cain, or Aguilar playing any *better* than they did last year, but I can definitely see them being worse (especially Aguilar)

also worth mentioning that both teams relied heavily on lockdown relievers that allowed them to convert nearly every game they were leading after 6. the combined WAR of Hader/Jeffress/Knebel was 5.5 but I kinda wonder if their projections have difficulty converting those numbers into *actual* WPA. maybe I'm misunderstanding how WAR is calculated, but Hader could've had the same season but have only been used in games where they were losing by 2+, and his WAR would be the same, right?

Even before the Gray trade, given what they did last year, I had seen some numbers that stated taking out Homer's and some of the other dregs starts and swapping in Roark and Woods' 2018 by the numbers the Reds 'could' have been a .500 club last year.

I think ILB might consider just doing one big NL Central thread this season, since it 'seems' be the most popular division on the site as we got fans of all the clubs on the board.

i predictatron that the st louis cardinals will be the 2019 world champions of the united states of america and canada
the brewers will lose 80, the cubs will easily take a wild card spot. pirates and reds, hangin in there
yeah i said it, let's do this

I think ILB might consider just doing one big NL Central thread this season, since it 'seems' be the most popular division on the site as we got fans of all the clubs on the board.

i'd be into that. we could just use this thread, too

if you use this thread you have to let us talk about the astros too they're grandfathered in

Need to just move the Giants, Mets and Blue Jays to the ILB Central.

I'm guessing Yanks, but who was the Brewers division rival in the AL East days?

if the projections have first and last separated by eight games, just imagine what one of those teams might accomplish with a bryce harper or manny machado

makes u think

They never really had a division rival, partly because they were rarely good enough to be rivaling anyone, but mostly because those divisional alignments made no sense, with the Midwestern teams divided randomly between the two divisions. They had no natural geographical rivals with St Louis, Chicago, Kansas City, and even Minnesota all in other divisions.

The AL East wasn't strong in rivalries for the most part. During the seventies the Orioles crushed the division most years, so there wasn't much competition going on. Yanks-Sox went into deep freeze from '78 on, since they were never really good at the same time. Detroit and Toronto had a great rivalry in the mid-80's, otherwise it was a fairly dry division for a long time.

I think ILB might consider just doing one big NL Central thread this season, since it 'seems' be the most popular division on the site as we got fans of all the clubs on the board.

i'd be into that. we could just use this thread, too

is anyone else into this idea? i like it because it saves me from bookmarking/following the 4 other NL central threads, and also because the cardinals thread is usually just me talking to myself and making tony larussa jokes

I'm game. Reds should have some neat stuff coming up this season as it is the club's 150th anniversary. So expect quite a few instances of retro jerseys and the usual bobblehead action from Cincy.

I think consolidation is a good idea in general on ilx in 2019

i wasn't planning to make a pirates thread because fuck them and their cheap bullshit

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/piker-pirates-its-time-for-pittsburgh-to-shake-off-its-reputation-as-one-of-the-thriftiest-teams-in-baseball

Contraction down to six divisional threads plus a general reg-season thread would be an interesting experiment.

Here’s a crazy idea: what about just one thread

Theoretically, everyone would just post to it. And be ok with reading things that weren’t immediately about their favorite team. They’d be flexible and wouldn’t be bothered, and the thread would be busy. At least two major arguments would occur. It would be great for everyone #onethread #ilbnation

To fule them all

Even if no one agrees I might just go rogue and spam the regular season thread with cardinals news

no sorry I insist on year-specific threads not only for every team but every topic

respect my authority

What about separate threads for every hall of fame election? + an extra thread for era-specific elections?

blow up the HOF before Harold Baines makes a speech

rip cubs

PECOTA projections were released today by @baseballpro. It has the Nationals and the Mets (!) tied atop the NL East at 89 wins. pic.twitter.com/5ARMA0pRv2

— Jamal Collier (@JamalCollier) February 7, 2019

why are these so far off from the FG predictions

that's a good question. fangraphs projects last place for the brewers (79-83), PECOTA projects first place (89-73). fangraphs has them scoring 4.46 runs and giving up 4.58 runs a game. PECOTA has them scoring 4.56 runs and giving up 4.07 per game. so i guess PECOTA is way more bullish on their pitching? haven't looked at all the others yet

you can't predict baseball, suzyn

i project that the cardinals will win between 72 and 112 games this year - where they fall, exactly, will depend on performance and luck

*nods sagely*

lol, that gave me the idea for a fantasy baseball team name except I don't play anymore — Long Live Giambi

(I'm sure someone else thought of it first.)

nope. now you must come back.

I can't do it! Every day I didn't get max points out of my roster I was furious at myself. Had to give it up just for sanity's sake.

xxxp: PECOTA is infamously inaccurate (one of the primary reasons why there are so many other more accurate models these days).

i don't know much about the track record of success for pre-season projections (seems like an impossible task, since injuries and mid-season trades are a thing). but at least on the brewers, i'd lean toward PECOTA more than fangraphs

i predict that each team in the NL central will win 86 games

just curious, are the brewers going after dallas keuchel at all? their only weakness is starting pitching imo, seems like it would make a lot of sense? is it just money, i guess? i know the brewers are a small market team but am i wrong in thinking that pretty much any team in baseball, in the era of billion dollar tv deals, can afford keuchel?

is it his beard? it's probably his beard

he's had a couple majestic seasons and quite a few very average seasons, he's 31, his strikeouts are down, etc.

so i can see him thinking 'i am a cy young winner' and other teams thinking 'not anymore, really' and there being a gap in perceived value. but yeah, any team *could* afford him

still projected for ~ 3.5 WAR for next year, though, which would make him the ace of the brewers and bump a mediocre SP out of the rotation. i'm just surprised they haven't jumped on it

3.5 WAR would be better than their first three starters combined.

In any case he is represented by Boras so we will be lucky if he signs anywhere before Opening Day.

Makes You Think

Cubs manager Joe Maddon says “Own It Now” is his mantra for this season. Taking ownership. Owning the moment. And, “now” backwards is “won”. pic.twitter.com/vWl50DcLuC

— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) February 12, 2019

If Keuchel wants a multi-year deal I can see why the Brewers would be gun-shy. they have a long history of signing 31-year old SPs to 3/4-year deals and watching them become totally worthless halfway through year 2 (or from the very first start in the case of Jeff Suppan)

honestly have no clue what they're planning - the big questions for Milwaukee are 1) do you expect Jimmy Nelson to be healthy and effective and 2) is Corbin Burnes gonna be a serviceable starter. if both those things are 'yes' then I don't think they necessarily need another SP (at least, not at the price they'd likely have to pay)

of course he wants a multi-year deal

i don't actually believe the cubs will finish last -- they do, after all, Own the Now -- but lol anyway

updated PECOTA has Cubs last in the NL Central. 😬 https://t.co/KBxbepFrm2

— Rob Arthur (@No_Little_Plans) February 13, 2019

😬

not a lot of margin of difference/error between those bottom three teams

it's weird they have the cubs defense rated so low compared to the pirates. i don't know much about the pirates defense but i thought the cubs defense was pretty good, except for when schwarber is in the game

that seems to be the reason for the cubs being in last considering they're predicted to be better at the pirates at everything else

neither the pirates nor the cubs seem to have done much of anything this winter, but the cubs will have a full season of hamels and possibly some darvish. no idea why this somehow closes last year's 12-game gap between them

On lower left corner of Cubs workout schedule: pic.twitter.com/oOJfhKyo0q

— Mark Gonzales (@MDGonzales) February 18, 2019

this quote about Matheny really takes me back:

In the Mike Matheny days, bullpen crunches were...well, bullpen crunches seemed to be about a twice a week problem, which was amazing given that Matheny somehow managed to leave starters in too long far too often, use his ‘pen in such a way there were never enough arms, and also lean so heavily on certain players as to burn them out midway through a season. It would seem, in any rational world, that doing two of those things would mean the third would be almost impossible, yet Matheny managed the trifecta of bullpen disasters pretty regularly. I suppose it takes a man of great faith to produce miracles.

watching the first Cardinals ST game and the announcers, and they've spent every single one of the 15 minutes i've watched complaining about how baseball is all strikeouts and HRs and how baseball sucks and "they're analyzing the analytics now, and they're finding that there is too much shifting" and they don't run enough anymore and back during the days of Whiteyball there was more hit and run and baseball sucks

i seriously can't take this shit again this year. guess i'm just going to start off with my late 2018 season approach of starting the game with the opposing team's broadcast, and then switching to "stadium/atmospheric noise/ambient" mode if i can't stand them either.

i am jealous of teams that have broadcasters who aren't annoying buffoons

Woah - how does one get just stadium noise?!

it's an option on mlb.tv, maybe just during regular season games. in certain situations, it is amazing how much better it is

Park sound wasn't available on their Apple TV app last year iirc, but it is now, hallelujah.

this is kind of a ridiculous idea, but i always wonder about what would happen if teams made their broadcasters open source - they could provide the video feed and some basic stats to everyone for free and allow them to do play-by-play over the top. in my head i have this idea that the next vin scully is sitting out there on their couch somewhere, just needing a chance. but in reality it would probably end up like Twitch where the most popular broadcasters are increeeeeedibly annoying and it's depressing to consider that most people actually like it

but for now, i will just be happy that park noise is there as an option, as it is so often better than the professional human options that are available

I’ve honestly wondered the same about open source broadcasting.

I might do the silent broadcast for the Blue Jays. Martinez is awful.

otm

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/pittsburghs-increasingly-cold-relationship-with-the-pirates-is-an-example-of-modern-baseball-gone-awry

alex reyes . . . lives

he just needs to live to to retire one more batter before he's no longer a rookie (exactly 50 innings in his career so far)

here are some assholes i hate

aroldis chapman
josh hader
craig timbrel
manny machado
jose reyes
jung-ho kang
manny machado
addison russell

in no order

double machado is vicious

one for the lame ankle kick as he was crossing first
one for refusing to apologize

carlos martinez has already gone down an injury, "received a platelet-rich plasma injection", and seems likely to be a reliever again this year. it kinda makes me sad because he's one of my favorite players. but actually, he's kind of electric as a reliever. and if hicks' arm avoids exploding, miller is even half of what he used to be, and leone is still pretty good, that would be a pretty excellent bullpen.

fp'd you for not asking how hot dominic leone is in person

get yr shit together karl malone

i saw that earlier today and fp'd myself for the same reason. but really i should have done that last year. i have no idea how that didn't occur to me

I am sincerely enjoying the wide array of opinions about whether Javier Baez can sustain his 2018 performance or not.

do we need an NL CENTRAL PREDICTATRON 2019 thread at least? or just keep going in this one

I might do the silent broadcast for the Blue Jays. Martinez is awful.

― Van Horn Street, Sunday, February 24, 2019 5:58 PM (two weeks ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I like Buck. Not his insight but mainly his old timey California accent

i favor restoring team threads; this concept is too 'cute'

Stay in yr own division!! ;)

I like having one divisional thread because the cardinals thread is mainly just me and it gets lonely

yeah i don't know that we really have enough posters to sustain individual team threads. in any case, i'm going to start a predictatron thread just bc it's fun to try and guess who's going to win.

oh shit, i didn't notice the new thread til now! (i am hopelessly reliant on bookmarks). for other pitiable souls:

NL CENTRAL PREDICTATRON 2019